Flood risk, climate change and settlement development: a micro-scale assessment of Austrian municipalities

Abstract in dt. Sprache nicht verfügbarThis paper analyses the influence of climate change and land development on future flood risk for selected Austrian flood-prone municipalities. As part of an anticipatory micro-scale risk assessment we simulated four different inundation scenarios for current and future 100- and 300-year floods (which included a climate change allowance), developed scenarios of future settlement growth in floodplains and evaluated changes in flood damage potentials and flood risk until the year 2030. Findings show that both climate change and settlement development significantly increase future levels of flood risk. However, the respective impacts vary strongly across the different cases. The analysis indicates that local conditions, such as the topography of the floodplain, the spatial allocation of vulnerable land uses or the type of land development (e.g. residential, commercial or industrial) in the floodplain are the key determinants of the respective effects of climate change and land development on future levels of flood risk. The case study analysis highlights the general need for a more comprehensive consideration of the local determinants of flood risk in order to increase the effectiveness of an adaptive management of flood risk dynamics.(VLID)164915

Variation in the prices of oncology medicines across Europe and the implications for the future

Introduction/ Objectives: There are increasing concerns among health authorities regarding the sustainability of healthcare systems with growing expenditure on medicines including new high-priced oncology medicines. Medicine prices among European countries may be adversely affected by their population size and economic power to negotiate. There are also concerns that prices of patented medicines do not change once the prices of medicines used for negotiations substantially change. This needs to be investigated as part of the implications of low-cost generic oncology medicines. Methodology: Analysing principally reimbursed prices of patented oral oncology medicines (imatinib, erlotinib and fludarabine) between 2013 and 2017 across Europe and exploring correlations between GDP, population size, and prices. Comparing the findings with previous research regarding prices of oral generic oncology medicines. Results: The prices of imatinib, erlotinib and fludarabine did vary among European countries but showed limited price erosion over time in the absence of generics. There appeared to be no correlation between population size and prices. However, higher prices were seen among countries with higher GDP per capita which is a concern for lower income countries referencing these. Discussion and Conclusion: It is likely that the limited price erosion for patented oncology medicines will change across Europe with increased scrutiny over their prices and value as more medicines used for pricing decisions lose their patents combined with growing pressures on the oncology drug budget. In addition, discussions will continue regarding fair pricing for new oncology medicines and other approaches given ever rising prices with research showing substantial price reductions for oral oncology medicines (up to -97.8% for imatinib) once generics become available. We are also seeing appreciable price reductions for biosimilars further increasing the likelihood of these developments

Relating hydraulics and ecological processes

Any major modification of the hydraulic system results with some retardation in a response of the ecosystem trying to adapt to the new conditions. It is difficult to imagine situations where hydraulics and ecosystems are not related. Thus, harmonizing hydraulics with ecology means to identify alternative hydraulic measures which yield simultaneously economic benefits and improvement, preservation or at least a best fit of the environmental situation. Often, these objectives are subjected to an inherent conflict and therefore harmonizing is dependent on the preference structure of the modern society, which is inclined to sustainable development. The objective of this chapter is to develop a framework (methodology) which might assist in relating hydraulics and ecology with respect to specific goals under site and problem dependent constraints

Relationship between water quality and macro-scale parameters (land use, erosion, geology, and population density) in the Siminehrood River Basin

To date, few studies have investigated the simultaneous effects of macro-scale parameters (MSPs) such as land use, population density, geology, and erosion layers on micro-scale water quality variables (MSWQVs). This research focused on an evaluation of the relationship between MSPs and MSWQVs in the Siminehrood River Basin, Iran. In addition, we investigated the importance of water particle travel time (hydrological distance) on this relationship. The MSWQVs included 13 physicochemical and biochemical parameters observed at 15 stations during three seasons. Primary screening was performed by utilizing three multivariate statistical analyses (Pearson's correlation, cluster and discriminant analyses) in seven series of observed data. These series included three separate seasonal data, three two-season data, and aggregated three-season data for investigation of relationships between MSPs and MSWQVs. Coupled data (pairs of MSWQVs and MSPs) repeated in at least two out of three statistical analyses were selected for final screening. The primary screening results demonstrated significant relationships between land use and phosphorus, total solids and turbidity, erosion levels and electrical conductivity, and erosion and total solids. Furthermore, water particle travel time effects were considered through three geographical pattern definitions of distance for each MSP by using two weighting methods. To find effective MSP factors on MSWQVs, a multivariate linear regression analysis was employed. Then, preliminary equations that estimated MSWQVs were developed. The preliminary equations were modified to adaptive equations to obtain the final models. The final models indicated that a new metric, referred to as hydrological distance, provided better MSWQV estimation and water quality prediction compared to the National Sanitation Foundation Water Quality Index